Technological tipping points
February 12th, 2007 . by polyGeekIn nature a population of organisms in an ecosystem compete over nutrients. Most of the time the ecosystem is in a state of predictable flux. But a newly introduced organism or a change in resources can throw everything into chaos. If the ecosystem passes a tipping point then a new state of predictable flux will be established.
It doesn’t take much of an imagination to see that the web is very much like an ecosystem of organisms and resources. The web ecosystem recently went through a tipping point. Web content had been relatively stable since the mid 90s. All hinged around text and graphics. Then broadband connections began to grow in number. That allowed a previously undernourished form of content to rapidly expand - video.
Initially there were a handful of competing video organisms trying to dominate the ecosystem. Then the most unlikely organism rose to dominate. And it regulated the others to limited and withering niches.
Video, video, everywhere
The BBC just admitted recently that the main reason they don’t use Flash video is timing: Flash video became the obvious answer after they had committed their resources to other formats. Do their users like it? No, and they have let the BBC know about it. But it isn’t going to change anytime soon. That’s because businesses rarely change unless there is a clear path to profits. In the BBC’s case they would have to buy lots of software, make changes to the servers, and retrain their engineers, who by now have automated and optimized their workflow so that they can spend most of the day checking youTube for broken links.
While nearly every new video based website coming online today uses Flash video CNN, MSNBC, BBC, NFL, and many others who were early adapters continue to use Windows Media/Real Player.
Go into the light
We all know that webTime moves very fast. Sometimes it seems that what’s popular now is yesterdays news tomorrow. I’m sure that many of the aforementioned sites would love it if they had the foresight to jump on the Flash bandwagon from the beginning. The trick is knowing where the spotlight is going to shine before the crowds arrive. Then you can just stand there and soak up the attention.
Okay, so where is the spotlight going to shine next?
Lets take a look at the web ecosystem and see if we can discover what the next tipping point might be so that we can predict where the spotlight is headed next.
One for you. Two for me.
Given that Windows makes up over 90% of the OS market ask yourself this: do you think that the Windows OS (Vista/XP) marketshare will grow at the expense of Apple and Linux?
No? I don’t think so either. It’s a given that the market will grow for Windows OS, because there are just more damn people in the world all the time, but the market share has reached its peak penetration.
Apple continues to erode into the Microsoft OS dominance. More than anything else the ability to run both Windows XP and OS-X on the same PC makes it easier to migrate over. You can dual boot both until the day you realize that you don’t want to use XP anymore. (Note: I work for Microsoft and haven’t used an Apple OS since the Apple IIe.)
Linux is bound to expand its marketshare. For one thing it’s very small right now - around 1-2% - so there’s nowhere to go but up. Plus, Linux is free, or nearly so which is attractive. Plus it is very stable, and fast. I like Neal Stephenson’s analogy, circa 1999: Windows is like the family station wagon that’s always breaking down and expensive as hell to fix. Apple OS is like an expensive European sports car, fast, and cool looking but a little finicky. And Linux is like a modern M1 Army tank that is faster and handles better than a European sports car while getting 100 MPG. And did I mention it’s free?
There are two main drawbacks to Linux: consistency between distros and lack of software, particularly hardware drivers.
Hopefully the newly formed Linux Foundation - HP, IBM, Intel and others - will help fix the consistency issue. They will also be able to pressure other hardware makers into providing Linux compatible drivers for their printers, video cards, cameras, etc.
As the market share for Apple and Linux continue to grow the demand for cross platform applications will grow. The more cross platform applications there are the easier it is for someone to switch from the Windows platform to Apple or Linux. That’s a feedback cycle.
This has happened before. Not too long ago a small company in the Seattle suburbs found itself on the positive end of a feedback cycle. Their OS was cheap and could be run on cheap computers. Businesses flocked to their platform. Their rapid rise was a boon for other software companies who could focus their products on just one platform and not bother with creating versions for two or more operating systems. That worked just fine until Microsoft added your application to their suit and then your business died. This is how Microsoft became king of the hill.
Today many software companies support only Windows XP. Especially if their software targets business users. And rightfully so. Why devote all the resources it takes to develop cross platform applications when you can focus on just one dominant platform. You shouldn’t. Not unless someone came up with a way to have one code base for your software that would work across platforms. Good luck with that because it’s been the holy grail of software development for decades.
Look at this shiny cup
There is a project out there code named Apollo from the good guys at Adobe. Apollo will enable developers to create software that can do nearly anything that any other application can do but with a twist. With one code base you can create an application that will run the same on Windows, Apple OS-X or Linux. And it’s a very fast development environment. Like how fast? How about creating a standards based web browser in 60 seconds? Or a file system explorer in 30 seconds? Those are projects that could take a team of developers months to create a few years ago. For Apollo that isn’t much more complex than creating the classic “Hello World”.
Is Apollo going to dominate the market from day one? No, certainly not. But it might be the resource the environment needs to reach a tipping point. There are already a handful of projects in the works and the product isn’t even in Beta yet. So look to see a splash in Summer’07 when Apollo goes 1.0.
Initially you’ll see a lot of today’s Web 2.0 Rich Internet Applications going to Apollo. That’s because many of these RIAs currently use Flex. Flex and Apollo use the same development environment so the transition from browser to desktop will be smooth in most cases. Plus AJAX applications will run on Apollo and give them access to the local file system. You’ll also see a cornucopia of desktop widgets created with Apollo coming out in Fall’07.
By this time next year you might see entire office suites created with Apollo. It has those capabilities. And of course there will be applications that have no real counterpart today because the world of web enabled applications is just starting.
Aziz. LIGHT!
Get ready to hear the terms like platform agnostic, platform independent, neutral platform, cross OS, etc. in every other tech article you read. It’s where the spotlight is headed.
Of course Microsoft isn’t going to sit idly by. They have their own initiatives such as Windows Live, whatever that is today, and WFP/e. Forget for a moment how good or bad these products might be. There is no way Microsoft is going to be able to compete in a cross OS space because that would be akin to chopping off one of their own legs - namely the Operating System division. No matter how much business since it might make from the standpoint of the Office team the company just can’t fully embrace platform independence.
What do you do if you drop your OS in a pool of molten Adobe?
According to all the press and pundits out there Google is the biggest threat to Microsoft. No doubt there will be some tug-o-war going on between the two companies over their overlapping territories. However, both companies should pay attention to the rumblings underfoot. They might find out that they are playing tug-o-war on a volcano made of Adobe. If you haven’t heard those rumblings sound like IPTV, P2P, VoIP, and FlashLight3 Video. And those are just the ones that are leaking out.
How do you know she is a witch?
Lets step back and think about what an OS is. My, possibly oversimplified, definition is: a place where your applications run or if it sounds better a runtime environment. No matter what Microsoft might say Internet Explorer is not a part of the Operating System. Certainly no more so than NotePad is. Neither are Windows Media Player, Windows Explorer or any of the other bundled apps who have their roots artificially entwined in the innards of the OS. That’s just what they are: bundled apps. And those apps run on Windows. Not in it.
Guess what. Apollo is just as much an Operating System as Windows Vista. Applications run on Apollo. Of course Apollo on a Windows PC is like an OS on top of an OS. That’s really overkill. It would be much better to use an OS under Apollo that is lightweight, fast and stable. Like, say Linux.
The typical business user needs: access to email - preferably on and off-line, a browser, wordprocessing, spreadsheets, slideshow, IM, and a media player. Each of those were killer apps when they happened on the scene but none of them are much of a challenge for a decent software company to create these days. In fact, you can get versions of every one of these apps for free. Oh, wait, you can even get the operating system for free.
Would this setup satisfy everyone? No, of course not. But enough will switch that might push the web ecosystem into a tipping point where Windows is no longer the king of the hill.
Here’s the real kicker: if this happens and Adobe Apollo ends up pushing Microsoft off the hill then the landscape will be radically altered. That’s because there won’t be a hill left to speak of. The Apollo run-time is going to be distributed for free. Linux is free. There will be no OS market to speak of.
Neal Stephenson said it himself in his book In the Beginning was the Command Line:
…it is the fate of operating systems to become free.
Adobe Software Australia Compare Adobe graphic software and buy from Australian stores
Another post I liked this week was by Dan over at Polygeek. It’s a look at how Apollo fits into the web environment. It’s good to keep in mind that Apollo is a 1.0 product. As I often say, I don’t think Apollo is *the* answer, but it’s changing the way people can think about and deploy applications. Once the creative developers start pushing it, the platform grows and we’re all better off. …
I just enjoy it when Oz gets on a rant. :)
That was fantastic Dan! I love the Neal Stephenson quote at the end, nice touch.
I also thought it was interesting what you said about Microsoft not being able to compete in a platform-neutral environment. I’m very curious to see what they do. Although I occasionally like to indulge in a bit of MS-bashing, i generally have a lot of respect for them. The reason being that its not easy to become and then stay the biggest software company in the world, especially for such a long time. With their track record they must do something right, and you never know that might include the ability to reinvent themselves as more than just an OS maker…
Its quite an exciting time really!
The smartest thing they’ve done in years is hire Ray Ozzy to take up Bill Gate job - chief software visionary, or something like that. Ray is a bright guy who isn’t married to any one department.
My view is that MS will have a hard time reinventing itself because of internal conflicts. Anyone who’s got a good position in the OS department isn’t going to want to give it up. That’s why big companies have a hard time changing direction.
The test will be when it becomes rather obvious that they are losing market share what do they do then. Keep charging up the hill in a vain attempt to recapture lost ground or do something inventive and try to flank the competition. My bet is on charging up the hill.
My father actually met Ray Ozzie at the web 2.0 conference a year and half ago. He was there representing a little company called Morfik who do Ajaxy things and he met Ray and Sergei Brin which was pretty neat. made for a good story to tell us when he returned to Australia!
oh no… tramadol side effects has visited your blog! Old Tramadol has so much to say about Flash and Flex and Adobe, good to see you trama :-)
… I guess spam has worked out how to add numbers and gotten past your protection, sad times :-(
maybe Oz can put in movie quotes, and only people who can answer which movie are allowed to post. [eeek!]
Comment spam deleted.
Yeah, you have to keep an eye out for that comment spam. I’m sure you know all about that Collis.
Oz == polyGeek?
regardless, i need help following all this. you work for MS, but are not happy with their rank or methods?
how will Adobe make money?
all we really need is 640k.
ps - the REAL answer to the spam q should always be 42, but i guess that wouldn’t protect you from spam, eh?
Yes, my email address is ‘oz At thisDomain.com’. Doesn’t it suck that we can’t even spell out or email addresses anymore for fear of spam? Frakers! They’ll be the first against the wall when the revolution comes. :-)
Nope, not really impressed with MS at all. They make a tone of mistakes and they aren’t the invisible giant people think they are. At least that’s how I feel about them.
Also, I’m a vendor for the Xbox team. I’m not an employee. I have very little vested interest in how they perform as a company. It isn’t like I get stock options or anything. Plus, I use all Adobe products at work - which they can’t stand but must tolerate because there are no other options.
Agreed on the REAL spam question.
could you explain “vendor” in the given context? you obviously are selling them, but you are a … contract worker? or … ??
and, if mem serves, the other options are … uhh errm.. open source, no? couldn’t you use gimp? blender? open office or the like?
(does it show that i am not a linux user?)
yet. in time. i’ve got a little nonviolent luddite living in me just waiting to unplug.
apparently i’m still not getting the REAL spam q. grrr.
peace & 42
correction: are => are not
and for clarification, selling as in vendor, as in selling them.
42
A vendor is much the same as a contractor with a few subtle differences.
I do use Open Office. Well, I have it but I rarely use it. I use the Google Office tools more. And I have the viewer for Visio so that I can see the documents but not edit them. Hopefully someday Adobe will release the CS suite to Linux and then I won’t need a Microsoft OS. And no, going to Apple isn’t a solution.
i’ve debated the Apple dual boot option. i’m no longer interested in buidling my own pc so having a system that can do help the transition seems logical. basically i root for the underdog and am waiting for amd. maybe a side bet rather than a purchase would be a better investment? along those lines, i’ve considered adobe, but it’s “too expensive” for me. that said 10% is 10% etc etc.
lastly, what about BeOS? hey, for that matter, dos rulez. i’m serious. it took me a while to give up dos and there are still things i don’t get in windows that i know the command of in dos. ironically, whenever i attempt to use linux i’m lost w/o a gui and the last time, with an older ver of a livecd, the mouse wasn’t detected and i had a short lived time with it.
all in all, imho, a lot of these “arguments” (perspectives!) are really just that, perspectives. for one, i’m not “in the field” but am hoping to be so someday. i’m learning xsi, but for the “starving” student, i’m seeing blender as more and more as the solution i want let alone need. this may be apples 2 oranges (not the company nor the blender release respectively) as blender is a more mature open source app.
i guess my point, one of em — probably a dull one, is that once a free OS is stationwaggonly enough, i don’t see why ppl will stick with M$.
irony of ironies, why haven’t i jumped ship already? good point. the pc’s i buy / work with come pre installed and do the job. the money has already been paid. there really isn’t that much functionality missing that needs to be “installed” and the environment is known. i guess i’m a) agreeing with you and b) talking in a circle… oval. but somewhere out there, there is a squash and stretched sphere with my name on it!
(and it didn’t cost me a fortune for the software, hardware, os, and education to make it)
peace & 42
ps - i got going so i thought it best to wrap it up, but i wanted to make one other point, inquiry. if things are going open source. if the industry gets tipped… how will i make money? how will those of us that aren’t already in the field (that are struggling to get there), be able to support themselves and families if the main things are free? even if i got really good, i wouldn’t be able to pay the bills with fame and the admiration of ppl that are like i am now.
I can’t speak to everything you said but there is no relationship to how much money you can make and open source. Plenty of people make big bucks by managing Linux systems. Case in point: Google engineers.
fair enough… but not quite the answer to the irrational (or is it rational?) fear that the target we aim at is moving.
your answer, although true, is rather limiting. i’m sure there is much more available in either world — pre and post tipped. or for that matter trice tipped. it just feels like it is moving farther and faster away. rem, the perspective is of someone wanting to “break into” the industry. no ties. no hand ups. no internship. this as opposed to the person eager to be able to use rather cool sw for free. that’s cool too, just not the perspective i’ve been ranting. ;o)
m$ might not be as invisible as they want and am totally agreed that they should be able to produce better stuff (if they wanted to), but they are not the only Goliaths. Adobe is one, Google, even open source becomes a Goliath. (Barney, Teletubies. *shudders in fear*)
perhaps my perspective is skewed. perhaps it’s not a good goal to hope to make something useful that will last. perhaps it is to make something useful now and repeat, regardless if the useful tool gets copied by a competitor — for or non profit.
now if only i can get rid of this “rooting for the underdog” and let AMD be and go find the company (or companies?) that were hoping to get the cpu contract with Apple, put it in a box, load a (free)DOS emulator on it with a few apps circa early 90’s, and become a door to door salesman. just a living. not big bucks.
thanks for all the fish.
peace & 42
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